Teenage and youth pregnancy predictors in Ecuador: A multiple logistic regression model Original Research

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María Laura Jijón


Introduction: Teenage pregnancy is a serious social problem with harmful consequences for the mother and the child. It is important to understand the factors related to this problem in order to develop adequate social policies. The present work identifies the predictive factors of adolescent pregnancy in Ecuador.

Methods: The 2018 National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT) of the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of Ecuador is analyzed. The sample was probabilistic, women between 10 and 24 years old were selected. Descriptive statistics and a multivariate logistic regression analysis were used: the adolescent pregnancy variable is the dependent variable, the predictor variables are education, modern contraceptive use, socioeconomic status, marital status, age at first sexual intercourse. Odds ratio is reported.

Results: Women between 10 and 24 years of age were studied (22239 cases). There were 38 cases / 7587 (0.5%) cases of pregnancy in women aged 10 to 14 years, 714/6053 (11.8%) of pregnancies in women aged 15 to 18 years, and 1978/8599 (23%) cases of women. ages 19 to 24 who had a teenage pregnancy. Afterwards, the analysis focused on those who have had sexual relations (8879 cases). It was found that the variables associated to teenage pregnancy are marital status "married or in a free union" OR = 2.53 (95% CI 2.50-2.56) P<0.001, sexual relations before the age of 14 OR 5.72 (95% CI 5.63-5.81) P<0.001, unsatisfied basic needs OR = 1.57 (95% CI 1.55-1.59), schooling OR = 0.87 (95% CI 0.866-0.87) P<0.001 and modern contraceptive use OR = 0.53 (95% CI 0.525-0.537) P<0.001. The prediction equation has an accuracy of 76.1%.

Conclusions: It is possible to determine factors associated to teenage pregnancy and to generate public policy to face this issue. Specifically, better sex education and campaigns to stop early unions are needed. 


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How to Cite
Jijón, M. L. (2021). Teenage and youth pregnancy predictors in Ecuador: A multiple logistic regression model: Original Research. Ecuadorian Journal of Pediatrics, 22(2), Article 16:1-7. https://doi.org/10.52011/117
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Author Biography

María Laura Jijón, Mathematics departament, Barnard College, Columbia University, New York

Graduada del Departamento de Matemáticas, Barnard College, Columbia University, New York.