Proposal of a new predictive model of mortality in high-risk new-borns and evaluation of its performance. Original research

Abstract

Introduction: The aim of this study was to establish a predictive model of mortality in high-risk newborns.

Methods: An epidemiological, observational, and cross-sectional study was carried out at the Isidro Ayora Gynecological Hospital, Quito, Ecuador in 201. The study included 220 high-risk newborns.

Results: No significant associations with prenatal factors were found, but a statistical relationship with weight, gestational age, Appearance, Pulse, Grimace, Activity, and Respiration (APGAR) score, resuscitation needs, and the presence of congenital anomalies in addition to shock, pulmonary hemorrhage, hyperglycemia, acidosis, and hospital stay was noted.

Conclusion: The presence of a more significant base excess, minimum fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO₂), septic shock, and at least one congenital defect with small gestational age determined an 80% probability of death. If the base excess was > −12 mEq/L, the infant was 13 times more likely to die, and if the infant required a minimum FiO₂ > 29%, the newborn was 4.2 times more likely to die. The reliability of the excess base increase predicted a 76.3% higher risk of death.